Ukraine has got its Arseniy Yatseniuk as its then-new Prime Minister in 2014 after mass protests against 2010-2014 President Viktor Yanukovych and his abandonment of European choice. Since the first days in Hrushevskoho Street Government Building, Arseniy Yatseniuk declared tough policy of resistance to the Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine, nonacceptance of the Russian annexation of the Crimean peninsula, fight with the corruption, and the general orientation on reforms aimed at reshaping the whole country's economy. Unfortunately, even in February 2016 the same points were repeated as "new" planks at the Government 1-Year Programme presentation. How come then that resignation of a mostly unsuccessful government may lead to the deterioration of achieved progress?
In 2014 it was no secret that the coalition was made "against" previous government and any possible counter-revolutionary undertakings. The voters were suffering undisguised manipulation citing probable revanche by Yanukovych henchmen. Aside well-established parties - "Batkivschyna" of Yulia Tymoshenko, "Svoboda" of Oleh Tiahnybok, three new talked-up movements were de facto created from the scratch - Blok Petra Pororshenka of Petro Poroshenko, Narodnyi Front of Arseniy Yatseniuk, "Radykalna Partiya" by Oleh Liashko, and "Samopomich" by Andriy Sadovyi (nominally). The first two leaned on business, numerous oligarchs' vested interests groups were included into these parties voting lists; the latter one was purely populist since its inception in 2010, yet its leader found new ways of serving oligarchs' interests, which brought him a decent election campaign budget as well as media presence, unprecedented in many TV-channels compared to his rating. By the way, both Arseniy Yatseniuk and Oleh Liashko got established in big politics as bayonets of Yulia Tymoshenko.
As "Svoboda" failed to find its new identification between radical nationalism and liberal economy values, it lost the elections.
2014 Government was formed keeping in mind the election results as Poroshenko's and Yatseniuk's groups needed additional parliament votes to form a coalition. It was clear that numerous high-rank appointments were the result of a haggle. True professionals were deprived of a chance to enter the government or any adjacent institutions.
In 2 years, since February 2014 till April 2016 the Ukrainian currency - hryvnia - lost 300% of its value. Despite the government declarations, this seems to be the clearest indicator of household losses as well. Official statistics recognises 43% inflation, 20% nominal income increase, 20% real money income decrease in 2015; as statistics is highly manipulated in Ukraine, true inflation on basic consumer goods and food is as high as 60-120% in 2015 alone, while budget-paid state salaries increased nominally 13-20% only.
According to the Constitution the President is responsible for the country's defence. Yet he lacks tools to implement his responsibility as money streams are directed by the Prime Minister. Undeclared war with Russia became a number one topic in the Ukrainian society, so any messages on war efforts were pushed hard in media. Gradually, war itself became reason no. 1 to explain any false step, like:
- nepotism - politician needs a team to work with;
- non-professionalism - where to find that many professionals?
In 2 years, since February 2014 till April 2016 the Ukrainian currency - hryvnia - lost 300% of its value. Despite the government declarations, this seems to be the clearest indicator of household losses as well. Official statistics recognises 43% inflation, 20% nominal income increase, 20% real money income decrease in 2015; as statistics is highly manipulated in Ukraine, true inflation on basic consumer goods and food is as high as 60-120% in 2015 alone, while budget-paid state salaries increased nominally 13-20% only.
According to the Constitution the President is responsible for the country's defence. Yet he lacks tools to implement his responsibility as money streams are directed by the Prime Minister. Undeclared war with Russia became a number one topic in the Ukrainian society, so any messages on war efforts were pushed hard in media. Gradually, war itself became reason no. 1 to explain any false step, like:
- nepotism - politician needs a team to work with;
- non-professionalism - where to find that many professionals?
- sabotage of lustration - country cannot lose experienced staff in the time of war.
Rivalry between President Poroshenko and Prime Minister Yatseniuk over cashflows manifested itself in fight over posts of Ministers, regional governors, governmental institutions (Tax & Customs Adimistration) key state-controlled companies CEOs, etc. Conflicts often rose to the ridiculous extent.
In many ways, the Government of Arseniy Yatseniuk has saved Ukraine in 2014-2015, e.g. by dealing with foreign creditors and restructuring state's debt. As Russia-inspired war in Donetsk & Luhansk regions flared up, the Government kept away from stopping formally illegal activities of "army volunteers" - people who helped to provide for the Ukrainian Army while it had not enough money and the procurement system was still extremely ineffective. They imported sniper rifles and their components (completely illegal!), used 4x4 SUVs (without paying custom duties), professional battle drugs (not certified in Ukraine), etc.
Is Yatseniuk's resignation good for Ukraine? Unfortunately, not. Despite all his blunders, at least a few people in his cabinet had some plans, notably Natalie Jaresko, Minister of Finance. She refused to work in a new cabinet that is expected to be led by today's Parliament Speaker Volodymyr Hroisman, 38. His political career was strongly connected with Petro Poroshenko's base region of Vinnytsia, where he showed no great results. Moreover, some say that as a city mayor he was responsible for organising counter-action against EuroMaidan by sending there "titushky" - sportsmen-criminals who acted together with the Yanukovych-time police.
Nobody expects a talent of reforms from a mediocre regional functionary-bureaucrat. His appointment will decrease already weak impetus. Besides, the formation of a new coalition entails more intolerable politically motivated assignments. Second-class parliament groups lost their influence over Poroshenko-Yatseniuk union; Poroshenko gained more control over budget money. Much more, as Hroisman is known to be his protege.
Thank you for your work, Mr. Yatseniuk. You know you could have fared better. Yet, thank you again.
Rivalry between President Poroshenko and Prime Minister Yatseniuk over cashflows manifested itself in fight over posts of Ministers, regional governors, governmental institutions (Tax & Customs Adimistration) key state-controlled companies CEOs, etc. Conflicts often rose to the ridiculous extent.
In many ways, the Government of Arseniy Yatseniuk has saved Ukraine in 2014-2015, e.g. by dealing with foreign creditors and restructuring state's debt. As Russia-inspired war in Donetsk & Luhansk regions flared up, the Government kept away from stopping formally illegal activities of "army volunteers" - people who helped to provide for the Ukrainian Army while it had not enough money and the procurement system was still extremely ineffective. They imported sniper rifles and their components (completely illegal!), used 4x4 SUVs (without paying custom duties), professional battle drugs (not certified in Ukraine), etc.
Is Yatseniuk's resignation good for Ukraine? Unfortunately, not. Despite all his blunders, at least a few people in his cabinet had some plans, notably Natalie Jaresko, Minister of Finance. She refused to work in a new cabinet that is expected to be led by today's Parliament Speaker Volodymyr Hroisman, 38. His political career was strongly connected with Petro Poroshenko's base region of Vinnytsia, where he showed no great results. Moreover, some say that as a city mayor he was responsible for organising counter-action against EuroMaidan by sending there "titushky" - sportsmen-criminals who acted together with the Yanukovych-time police.
Nobody expects a talent of reforms from a mediocre regional functionary-bureaucrat. His appointment will decrease already weak impetus. Besides, the formation of a new coalition entails more intolerable politically motivated assignments. Second-class parliament groups lost their influence over Poroshenko-Yatseniuk union; Poroshenko gained more control over budget money. Much more, as Hroisman is known to be his protege.
Thank you for your work, Mr. Yatseniuk. You know you could have fared better. Yet, thank you again.
