2016 was
another difficult year for Ukraine. Every month there was an escalation in the
front line in eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk; the economy continued its
downturn despite governmental optimism; Poroshenko’s party managed to control
its satellites; more notorious and incompetent figures were appointed to public
posts.
In Ukraine,
Canada and Australia are regarded as 100% as allies; the United States and the
UK are considered to be more of allies than France or Germany; as the
Netherlands fail to support EU-Ukraine Free-Trade Agreement in referendum,
there are even calls to boycott goods and companies from this country. There is
a separate ring of support made of countries of Eastern Europe that are close
to Russian borders, e.g. Poland and Lithuania. Once they were occupied by Russia
themselves and feeling the same danger today, they advocate eagerly Ukraine’s
sovereignty.
On the
eastern front there are soldiers from Belarus, Georgia and Chechnya – they
believe that Russia’s defeat in Ukraine may trigger fall of its influence in their
countries that lost their either their sovereignty or territory to Kremlin.
Besides, Ukrainians are told to have fought in the Caucasus in the 1990s.
Yesterday’s
heroes are easily discredited: Nadiya Savchenko has lost any chance to become
an important politician due to her collaboration with pro-Russian figures and
questionable statements.
Sociological
surveys indicate that Poroshenko has no mass support, his party’s rating is
below 10%. But there are no prominent politicians able to oppose him. He proved
to be an efficient businessman; he continues to be one, possessing a business in
Russia (though his assets in the occupied Crimea were reported to have been confiscated).
The actions
of Hroisman’s Government prove that he is preparing for the possible early
elections of the parliament. Undertakings to improve life of the common people,
like doubling the minimum wage, appear to be nothing but blatant populism that
destroys economy, and, in particular, its basis – the self-employed middle
class.
As Putin is
believed to expect better relations with Trump, the Russian offensive might be
expected in February 2017. On the other hand, Obama has proved that he has
nothing to lose, and his position is firm, so the US will exert pressure on
Russia to prevent aggression expansion.
