In December 2016 the forces calling themselves “the war veterans” started the blockade of the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk region. Their primary explanation was that the official government of Kyiv cannot trade with the occupational authorities, providing thus them with the resources to wage war. The reaction of Hroisman’s Government was quite expectable: Donetsk coal supply was declared to be of strategic importance, as well as the contribution to the central budget of local export-oriented companies, mostly of metallurgy. Should the blockade of occupied eastern regions be held then?
Ukrainians are known to pretend that the issues they are dealing with are unknown elsewhere. Yet, the question of counteracting occupation or enemy-supported enclaves is well known is the modern history. Serbia managed to create its enclaves in Croatia during 1991-1995 period of Yugoslav wars. Although being bound by the truce, the Croatians developed the elaborate schemes to counteract the occupation. They identified depletion of the resources as one of the primary aims. It is impossible to maintain the resistance when you possess no ammunition, and the provision is scarce. The latter derived from humanitarian help only. Moreover, Serbia was heavily struck by the international sanctions that prohibited any import or export to the country; even its sports team were banned from international competitions. The measures taken weakened the Serbian separatism for Croatia to lead the successful 1995 offensive to liberate its territories.
The local population of the occupied territories is held as usually held as hostages of the occupational authorities. Yet it is very important for the aggressor to have them as the allies. The representatives of the ex-Soviet nations easily fall to manipulations based on imposing their opposition to the current government. Russian propaganda made them believe that the government has betrayed well-cherished communist ideals of their youth while Moscow was ready to protect them. Yet Transnistria, Abkhazia, Osetia have found them in hybrid reality of corrupt and oligarchic Kremlin – and neither did the strength of their youth come back. Each year Russians have to offer more and more perks to keep them allied – budget allocations, Russian citizenship, free higher education in Russian universities. As for eastern Ukraine, the local coal miners and plant workers wanted to keep their mines and factories – even though Russia itself closed such industry in adjacent regions due to non-profitability. With no real economy, no real output, no access to international markets, any occupied region is doomed.
As of moment, the blockade of Donetsk and Luhansk regions is more of a symbolic value. Only railroads are de facto blocked; there is enough supply from Russia; the goods are transported through the territory of Russia, not crossing the front line. Besides, the experience of the trade embargo with the annexed Crimea proves that the Ukrainian business is eager to sell goods there, despite sanctions. As of 2017 goods “made in Ukraine” are reported to be widely available in the supermarkets there.
It should be noted that Poroshenko’s Government got involved in media confrontation with the blockade initiators. The latter are often reported to have connections to the unloyal oligarchs, possibly Kolomoiskyi. Poroshenko’s social networks bots scared Ukrainians with the danger of powercuts due to lack of the Donetsk coal at power stations of several regions. They claimed the coal is a strategic product, and purchasing it from occupied territories is a case of necessity.
All in all, the Ukrainian government is balancing between officially recognising certain territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions to be occupied by Russia, and the allegation that businesses and people there are still subjects of Ukrainian jurisdiction liable to pay taxes and receive social benefits. But the previous experience of other countries shows that comprehensive blockade is an effective solution to deal with the occupation. Yet in the case of eastern Ukraine, such blockade is impossible as Russia controls hundreds of kilometres of Ukrainian border. Besides, both Ukrainian business and government are willing to violate blockade in order to sell and buy goods.
