Thursday, 8 June 2017

Digest and Analysis of the Major War Events, Tragedies and Prospects in Ukraine in May 2017

May 2017 was a very strange month in eastern Ukraine war. The shelling of the Ukrainian Army positions intensified every other day. But some days were incredibly quiet. Yet the situation distinctly worsened after President of the USA Donald Trump had phone talk with President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin. Due to the strange Russian tradition, the heaviest shelling took place May 9, 2017, when Russians celebrate their Victory in Europe Day.

Among the worst outcomes of the war is the loss of future prospects. Despite programmes of psychological reintegration into the society after demobilization, numerous Ukrainian soldiers die due to most unbelievable reasons. It is not uncommon that a heart of an ex-soldier in his 20s stops. Many are listed "reason of death unknown", "sudden, unexpected death"; often suicide is suspected.

All in all, 7 Ukrainian soldiers are reported to have perished in Eastern front (https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2017/05/31/novyna/suspilstvo/turchynov-nazvav-kilkist-zahyblyx-travni-vijskovyx). Some media announced that this is a record low loss number since the start of the Russian aggression in Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine in spring 2014.
Yet when non-combat losses outside the front line are accounted, including demobilized soldiers, the number is 35. 21 y.o. and 24 y.o. die of cancer; another 24 y.o. is found dead (either murder or suicide); hearts of 30 y.o. and 31 y.o. stopped (https://gazeta.ua/articles/donbas/_pamyatayemo-imena-vsih-bijciv-ato-yaki-zaginuli-u-travni/775849).

In May 2017 Russian troops shelled residential areas (http://www.interpretermag.com/2017/05/page/4/) - not by mistake, but for the aim of intimidation, as we have written earlier. As Donetsk and Luhansk regions locals are reluctant to support openly Kyiv or Moscow, Putin's strategy is to promote among them the understanding of the idea that if Ukrainian Army does not shell civilians, then it is safer to be on the Russia-occupied land side. Unfortunately, numerous locals still cannot recognise the reality, considering it to be a dream and seeing the revival of the USSR the solution. Unfortunately for them, Putin's Russia is not the Soviet Union, the occupied Crimea has felt that in full losing civil freedoms but receiving no social security protection, jobs or at least self-cast confidence in future - only poverty and bureaucracy proved stable there.

Despite starting Trump's perception in Russia as of "useful idiot" and his claims to limit US involvement abroad, he soon developed his position to NATO strengthening and even accusation of Obama's administration of failure to act to prevent occupation of the Crimea in February 2014. The latter might be true as numerous confirmations of the 2014 USA and EU-issued recommendations issued to Ukraine not to counteract military occupation of the Crimea by Russia, e.g. http://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/graphics/2017/04/jak_my_vtrachaly_krym_svidchennja_pershyh_osib_ukrainy/http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/03/3/7017385/ ; http://espreso.tv/news/2015/08/22/ssha_radyly_ukrayini_ne_voyuvaty_z_rosiyeyu_za_krym____zmi .