A list of major event shaping Ukrainian reality; analytics; forecast.Mikheil Saakashvili entered Ukraine. President Poroshenko decided not to escalate the situation and abstain from prosecuting him for criminal offense of trespassing the state border. In fact, it is not even a criminal offense according to the Ukrainian Law; so Saakashvili faced fine for an administrative offense.
Fire in Odesa children camp appeared to be a tricky case. Media reports were largely aimed against Odesa city Mayor Trukhanov. He was a pro-Russian politician before 2014. But after the 2014 Russian aggression he went over to represent Poroshenko in Odesa region; meanwhile ex-Party of Regions MP Serhii Kivalov take hold of main Odesa pro-Russian figure. Therefore, the arson is rumoured - to discredit Trukhanov. Unfortunately, it does not make him pro-Ukrainian, every his speech gives away his Russian mind outlook. But to save his image, the authorities found a scapegoat - a camp tutor responsible for fire safety. She is an orphan. Moreover, she quit the job a month ago. Yet she is arrested and to be tried.
Ukraine managed to re-enter the external borrowing market. The Government proclaimed it a great step forward to stimulate foreign investment and to bring trust back to Ukraine. The interest rate of over 7% in USD loan cannot be called a true victory. The experts say it is done mostly to avoid IMF pressure - they demand specialized anti-corruption court establishment in order to agree a new loan.
The war in east slows down. The eastern Ukraine locals are disillusioned understanding Russia forgot about them. Yet Russian propaganda is deep in their minds - making them fear Ukraine presented by Russia as a "fascist state".
The state service reform stage of forming "directorates" in the ministries started. The experts are to develop new reforms. But they are to be within the frame of the Government's Programme - which is usually very conservative and limited, as it is developed by populist politicians.
Ukrainian political processes seem to be influenced by the approach of the oncoming elections of President and the Verkhovna Rada. Traditionally, it makes Government's policy extremely populist - to attract votes of the poor majority.